Technology changes are comparatively easy to predict.
The computer.
The fax machine.
The interstellar rocket.
The airplane.
The cell phone.
The drones.
The lie detector.
The biometric scan.
The electric car.
The driverless car.
The internet.
These are just some of the technologies that were developed, conceived, proposed, or prototyped in early to middle part of the last century and now have come to full commercial fruition in our time.
Societal changes based in changing behavior and ideas (economic, social, political, etc.) are less easy to predict.
The rise and fall of cigarette smoking.
Women in the workplace.
Gay marriage.
Minority civil rights.
The illegalization of drug use.
The end of child labor.
Prohibition.
The move of manufacturing away from the US.
The rise of globalism.
Mass genocide.
Mass immigration movement.
The rise of religious based radicalism.
The fall of the British Empire.
The rise and fall of Soviet Communism.
Until we can predict how people will use the technology they now have (i.e. Twitter) in conjunction with behavioral changes at the societal level (i.e. Black Lives Matter) to create a future where half of that equation stubbornly refuses to be examined (behavioral changes at the societal level) we will remain blind to future changes, surprised by black swans, and bound to hindsight biases.
And we’ll get no closer to being able to predict the future than we are now.
